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《国际人力资源管理》课程公共资源 > 讲义：section06

clarke1周前 (09-10)人力资源管理21

From the introduction part, we know that part two-acquisition and preparation of human resources consists of chapter 5-human resource planning and recruitment, chapter 6-selection and placement, and chapter 7-training.

We will focus on chapter 5 in today's class.

After studying this section, you should be able to discuss how to align a company’s strategic direction with its HR planning.

Second, you are supposed to describe the process of human resource planning.

Third, you should be able to determine labor demand and labor supply for workers in various job categories.

Twitter started courting Google’s product development vice-president, Sundar Pichae several years ago.

Twitter provided Sundar Pichae a $5 million counter-offer. But Sundar Pichae refused.

Now as the CEO of Google, the name of Sundar Pichae is already as famous as Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg, Apple's Tim Cook and Amazon's Jeff Bezos and other big brothers in technology industry.

The battle reflects a “Clash of Titans,” and takes place between large and well-known players such as Oracle, HP，Microsoft，and Facebook, who often raid each other in an effort to poach the best workers.

This table illustrates what human resource managers can do in terms of planning and executing human resource policies that give their firms competitive advantage in different life cycle stage.

In introduction and the stage of growth, HR is trying to attract best technical and professional talent, just like the story of clash of Titans told us.

Whereas in decline stage, HR will plan and implement workforce reductions and reallocations.

So what is human resource planning?

Human Resource Planning is the process an organization uses to ensure that it has the right amount and the right kind of people to deliver a particular level of output or services in the future.

1. The first step in the planning process is forecasting. The HR manager attempts to forecast the supply of and demand for various types of human resources.

The primary goal is to predict where there will be future labor shortages or surpluses.

2. The second step in human resource planning is goal setting and strategic planning.

The purpose of setting specific quantitative goals is to address a pending labor supply and demand.

3. The last step is program implementation and evaluation.

The Human Resources Planning Process consists of forecasting, goal setting and strategic planning, and program implementation and evaluation.

Forecasting determines the demand and supply of human resources and predicts in what positions surpluses will exist in the future or in what position shortages will exist in the future.

1. Labor Demand is derived from product/service demanded and it is external in nature.

2. External labor supply is decided by the labor market. Internal movements are caused by transfers, promotions, turnover, retirements, etc.

3. By comparing forecasts for labor supply and demand for specific jobs, the organization can determine what it needs to do.

Forecasting, on both the supply and demand sides, can use either statistical methods or judgmental methods.

Let’s look at the methods of forecasting HR demands firstly.

Quantitative techniques used in forecasting HR demands include ratio analysis and regression analysis.

Judgmental Techniques include collecting information and subjectively weigh it.

One of the attempts to make forecasting more accurate and meaningful is Delphi technique.

This illustration shows the process of predicting labor demand for a hotel chain by ratio analysis.

Suppose the number of general manager in 2014 is 25, and there are 25 hotels, so the ratio of employees per hotel is 1.

If there will be 32 hotels in 2015 (7 new hotels are set up), so the projected labor demand of general managers for 32 hotels is 32*1=32.

Suppose the turnover rate of general manager is 38% and there are 25 general managers in 2014(from the last table), so the projected turnover in 2015 is 25*38%=9.5(about 10 employees).Then in 2015 there are 25-10=15 general manager left.

And just now we figure out the projected labor demand of general managers in 2015 is 32.

So the company needs to hire 32-15=17 new general managers.

Then what about using regression analysis?

In regression analysis, the historical predictor of workforce size is identified.

If we use the equation on the slide, the future HR requirements can be figured out by using the equation.

Suppose the projected sales is one million and the projected new customers is 300, so the future HR requirement will be 413.

So here the projected sales and new customers are leading indicators. The leading indicator is an objective measure that accurately predicts future labor demand.

Therefore, labor demand can be predicted by the use of statistical techniques such as leading indicator.

This technique was developed by Helmer and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation.

The name of Delphi was originated from the ancient Greek myth about the sun god Appollo.

What supernormal ability does Appollo has? Appollo has the ability to foresee the future.

Therefore, this forecasting method is named as Delphi method.

One difference between Delphi and Brainstorming is that Delphi technique is anonymous.

As in the case of labor demand, forecasting for labor supply can be derived either from quantitative techniques or through judgmental techniques.

The quantitative techniques estimate internal labor supply by turning movement of labor into transition probabilities, which is called Markov analysis.

It can be expressed in the following model: X（K＋1）＝X（K）×P

Here P stands for probabilities.

Let’s look at a transitional matrix for a hypothetical manufacturer, focusing on seven job categories: sales manager, sales representative, sales apprentice, assistant plant manager, production manager, production assembler and clerical.

Transitional matrices show the proportion (or number) of employees in different job categories at different times.

A matrix like the one in this table can be read in two ways.

First, we can read the rows to answer the question “Where did people in this job category in 2012 go by 2015”For example, 70% of those in the clerical job category (row 7) in 2012 were still in this job category in 2015, and the remaining 30% had left the organization.

A transitional matrix can also be read from top to bottom ( in the columns) to answer the question “Where did the people in this job category in 2015 come from (Where were they in 2012)? Again, starting with the clerical job (column 7), 70% of the 2015 clerical positions were filled by people who also in the position in 2012, and the remaining 30% were external hires.

If we believe that we will have a labor shortage in the area of sales representatives, the matrix informs us that we may want to (1) decrease the amount of voluntary turnover in this position, since 35% of those in this category leave every three years, (2) speed the training of those in the sales apprentice job category so that they can be promoted more quickly, and/ or (3) expand external recruitment of individuals for this job category, since the usual 20% of job incumbents drawn from this source may not be sufficient to meet future needs.

The judgmental techniques used in forecasting HR supply include performance reviews, succession planning, and vacancy analysis.

Many companies are losing numbers of upper-level managers due to retirement or voluntary turnover.

Succession planning refers to the process of identifying and tracking high-potential employees.

The process of developing a Succession Plan includes

• Identify what position are included in the plan, especially for management position

• Identify high-potential employees, based on the performance appraisal system

• Link the succession planning system with other HR systems, including training and development, compensation, performance management.

For example, the founder of Apple is Steve Jobs, and his successor is Tim Cook.

Here on the slide is illustration for vacancy analysis.

Different symbols are used to stand for present performance level (outstanding, satisfactory, oblique line stands for needs improvement) and promotion potential (blank stands for ready now, round stand for needs further training, and black stands for questionable).

Who is likely to be promoted to Executive Vice-president, Snow, manager of household fans division or E. Farley, manager of industrial fans division?

The Big Three, when used in relation to the United States automotive industry, most generally refers to the three major American automotive companies: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler (FCA US).

The facts presented indicate that historical trends between leading indicators and the labor demand are changing. For example, the substantial new business is labor-intensive. Under these circumstances, statistical approaches to forecasting labor demand are probably inappropriate. A judgmental approach will be able to take into account the recent changes.